If you can't improve a great board by polishing it, maybe you can jump to a different great board. On every record pair tested, you can't, and the structural reason why is worth seeing.
Two top boards look totally different, but they're related: you can turn one
into the other by picking up a set of pieces and shifting each one into the
spot the next was using, all the way around a loop. Mathematicians call that
loop a cycle. Do the whole loop and you arrive at the other board.
Here's the catch. Between the best boards, that loop is enormous and there's
only one of it. Going from a 459 board to McGavin's 469 means one
single interlocking cycle of 154 cells, spanning the entire interior of the
board.
We computed the exact cycles between three different record boards and then
tried every partial move: apply just some of the loop and see what the score
does. The result is blunt. Every partial application makes the score worse,
with drops ranging from a few points to over a hundred. There is no subset of
the loop that helps, not one.
That's what makes it a wall. To move from one good board toward a better one
you'd have to commit to shifting up to 154 cells at once, with no improving
step along the way to guide you there. Every search that works in steps is
blind to a move like that.
458 to McGavin 469: one giant cycle of 80 cells, spanning rows 1 to 14.
459 to McGavin 469: one giant cycle of 154 cells.
In every case, every smaller piece of the cycle scores worse: the
property held in all three basin pairs tested, though three pairs is a
small sample and it is not proven to hold in general.
Together with the rigidity wall, this closes
off the two obvious escape routes at once. You can't climb out of a good
board locally, and (on every record pair measured here) you can't hop to a
neighbour either, because the nearest better board is one indivisible move of
80 to 154 cells away. This is a plausible part of why the 470 record has stood
since 2021: the moves that would beat it appear too large for any
step-by-step search to find.
Cycles are computed exactly from pairs of record boards by composing their
piece permutations; the subset tests enumerate sub-cycles and rescore. The
animation above is a schematic of the mechanism, not the 154-cell cycle
itself.